I am sitting here in New York reading goodness knows how many articles on the Brexit. It is getting more coverage than any other news right now.
I recognize it is juicy for the media because there are all sorts of thought-provoking issues that touch on how human beings can live together (or maybe not live together) – but I have another take on this that I haven’t seen in other articles so I will share it. My thoughts also lead into a possible twist on real estate investing as well.
Let’s start with London. People are wondering understandably what will happen to London. It appears that some parties want to pull their money out; hence, various London based investment funds are (temporarily) closed to withdrawals. Other articles indicate a concern that the EU will make it rough on London and/or the informal financial center of Europe will move away from London. There is a concern that London may be in trouble.
I know I shouldn’t make a prediction about the future – indeed, that was the point of my last article – but here goes anyway. I predict that:
London will be just fine!
There I said it. I sure hope that either (i) I am right or (ii) if I am wrong no one remembers I made this prediction,
Here is my thinking…
About eight years ago – at the end of 2008 – there were many who thought it was lights out for New York. The thinking was that the banks and investment banks and funds were falling apart, there were no bonuses for the people who worked at them, people would give up, the financial center would shrink down and die and possibly the center of the US world would move to DC or another location.
At this time I made a speech to my law firm about this issue. My speech had a central theme that NYC would be just fine. My reason was simple – it was that New York City has a special magic to it that makes the key ingredient – the talented people – stick around. Even though everything financial was crashing, my thesis was that the people that think of and effectuate complex real estate and corporate financial transactions wouldn’t “want” to leave. They would “want” to stay in New York and if they did in fact stick around they would create the next upside.
That is “exactly” what happened. The talent stayed and New York is stronger than ever before.
I see the same thing here with London.
I have only been to London once and I haven’t traveled much – so I admittedly am taking a bit of a leap here – but from what I know, London is a very special place. It is a melting pot of humanity. It is a vibrant and powerful city that has a special magic to it. When you get right down to it, I don’t see the talent “wanting” to leave – uprooting their families to go where, exactly? There are other great cities in Europe for sure, but if your life is in London, I don’t see people eager to move somewhere else so easily. If you live in London and have family and business contacts there, your optimal first strategy is to figure out if there is a way to stick around.
And if the talented people that form the backbone of London’s financial expertise don’t actually leave then I am confident that everything will be just fine in the end for London. That talent will create the next upside, just as occurred in New York.
Also, London has other significant features compared to the rest of Europe: The language in London is English (or some variation of it) and the language of global business is also English. This is a significant built-in advantage for a global financial center. And, London is a common law system with a well-developed and understood legal tradition and landscape that is far easier to navigate through compared to any other jurisdiction in the remaining EU.
Now I will philosophize a bit and wonder if this is a theme for a modest twist on real estate investing; namely, to follow the talent?
Consider this for the real estate world, i.e. evaluate where to invest based on whether the location is attracting and retaining talent — or not.
Currently, real estate investors look at population growth and jobs growth, which of course makes a ton of sense – however, I haven’t seen people look at “talent growth” or “talent flight” for purposes of real estate investing. Perhaps this is worth considering.
And I do hope I am right about London. . . . . .